The Archive

This work presents a novel attention-based framework for estimating the Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit (IPTB) in survival analysis contexts. The proposed model, called Surv-IPTB, directly quantifies the probability that a specific patient will experience extended survival time under treatment versus control. We reformulate IPTB estimation as a binary classification problem, leveraging pairwise patient comparisons across treatment and control cohorts. The framework incorporates a principled handling of right-censored observations through imprecise probability representations, wher...

We study the problem of sampling from target distributions whose potentials are simultaneously non-smooth, subject to superlinear gradient growth, and non-convex. We introduce the Subgradient Tamed Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (SG-TULA), a discretisation of the Langevin diffusion that operates directly on subgradients, without relying on computationally demanding smoothing procedures. To handle the superlinear regime, taming techniques are employed to produce a stable, explicit scheme. We derive non-asymptotic convergence bounds in Wasserstein-2 distance, with all constants tracked explicitl...

Persistence diagrams (PDs) provide stable and interpretable summaries of multiscale topological structure. While substantial progress has been made in the statistical analysis of PDs, existing literature often treats diagrams as static objects and provide limited frameworks for probabilistic modeling and stochastic evolution on PD space. We introduce a reinforcement learning framework for stochastic dynamics on PD space, where diagrams evolve through topology aware local edit operations. The dynamics define controlled Markov processes on spaces of finite PDs with variable cardinality. We esta...

The "thinking-with-images" paradigm equips multimodal LLMs with active visual operations such as crop-and-zoom. However, models using these operations often achieve only marginal or negative gains over direct inference at substantially higher token cost. They may also repeatedly crop irrelevant regions and fail on questions that direct inference answers correctly. We ask whether the returned visual evidence causally affects the answer. To answer this question, we formulate visual tool-use as a causal graph that separates observation-mediated paths from action-induced shortcuts. We then audit ...

Taking vibe-coding a step further, Naïve claims its infra can automate most of the work in setting up and running a business.

OpenAI is making a big change for ChatGPT users on its free and Go tiers: starting next week, users on those tiers will be able to have unlimited text chats with the chatbot, according to OpenAI. Right now, you may run into rate limits if you do too many text chats on those tiers, but those limits, just for text, will be going away soon. Messages that include things like file uploads and images will continue to have limits. Next week, OpenAI is also adding a "Think" button for free and Go users that they can use to "access higher reasoning for harder questions." This week, for those users, th...

Synthetic clinical benchmarks for enterprise AI agents can pass existing utility checks and still remain structurally unrealistic, especially in privacy-sensitive healthcare settings where operational data are hard to access. We study how to improve such benchmarks without breaking the downstream utility checks already used in practice. We formulate benchmark revision as utility-constrained realism improvement: dataset changes should increase realism while staying above an operational utility floor. We instantiate this idea on a care-gap benchmark derived from Synthea-generated patients exerc...

The development of deep learning over the past decade has revolutionized medical imaging segmentation, allowing the extraction of precise descriptors from large volumes to characterize pathologies. Data augmentation is a technique widely regarded as a way to improve model training. It includes simple transformations like spatial operations or intensity modifications, but also more advanced synthesis techniques. Their goal is to generate new realistic samples from an existing dataset to diversify the images used during training. Among them, several propose different mixing strategies to combin...

Model evaluations may fix all tests before observing any responses or select later tests using earlier responses. We study this choice in a conditional-query model on a finite outcome space $\mathcal{X}$ with $|\mathcal{X}|=N$. We first ask which pairs of distribution classes can be reliably distinguished. We then ask how many additional queries are required to match an adaptive tester when all queried events must be fixed in advance. We show that learnability holds if and only if the two classes have positive separation in their pairwise conditional probabilities. When this separation is zer...

Reaction yield prediction remains challenging because labeled data are scarce and reaction space is both combinatorially large and sparsely populated, limiting the generalization of existing reaction representations. String-, fingerprint-, and graph-based reaction encodings only partially capture chemical transformations, making accurate prediction difficult for reactions with complex substrates. We propose reaction contrastive learning foundation (RxnCLF), a self-supervised contrastive framework for reaction representation learning. RxnCLF is built on a condensed reaction graph (CRG) that un...

Metabolomics knowledge is distributed across heterogeneous resources and remains difficult to translate into predictive representations. We developed MetaboLLM, a metabolomics-specialized large language model adapted through continual pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and structured retrieval, together with MetaboLLM-GIN, which converts generated biochemical descriptions into metabolite graphs for patient-level prediction using a graph isomorphism network. Across four backbone families, MetaboLLM outperformed corresponding base and medically adapted models on metabolomics knowledge, relati...

Deaf and hard-of-hearing people in Bangladesh communicate mainly through Bangla Sign Language (BdSL). Automatic BdSL recognition on personal devices could widen access to education and services. Existing systems use controlled-setting datasets without expert verification and heavyweight pretrained backbones unsuited to on-device use. We introduce RSBdSL38, 10,874 expert-validated images spanning all 38 BdSL hand signs, representing the 51 letters of the Bangla alphabet, recorded from real signers at three special-needs schools across Bangladesh. We propose a lightweight attention based convol...

In overparameterised classification, training data can be linearly separable even when the underlying distribution is not. In this setting, gradient descent (GD) on the logistic loss diverges in norm while converging in direction to a max-margin interpolating classifier, whose implicit bias can be statistically suboptimal. In this work, we show that early stopping can overcome this suboptimality: in a Gaussian mixture model with label-flipping noise, GD stopped at an appropriate oracle time achieves minimax-optimal excess zero-one risk for covariance spectra with fast and continuous decay, in...

Post-training adaptation has become central to modern machine learning practice and includes techniques such as retraining, fine-tuning, parameter-efficient adaptation, alignment, retrieval augmentation, model editing, unlearning, calibration, and Multimodal Instruction Tuning. However, the literature remains fragmented across technique families, model classes, and deployment contexts, making it difficult to compare methods or describe how a trained model has been modified. This survey synthesizes the post-training adaptation literature and introduces a six-dimensional taxonomy organized by m...

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models using automatically verifiable outcome signals, but these signals are typically sparse and at the sequence-level. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) mitigates this sparsity by querying a privileged teacher at student-visited prefixes and providing dense token-level distributional supervision. Although this dense supervision alleviates signal sparsity, we find that standard OPSD still underexploits the temporal structure of the rollout. It assigns every local divergence the same c...

Existing machine-learning weather forecasting models rely on predetermined and fixed autoregressive timesteps. The choice of model timestep involves a fundamental trade-off: shorter timesteps (e.g. 1 to 6 hours) finely resolve atmospheric dynamics within the diurnal cycle but increase error accumulation for a given forecast horizon, while longer timesteps (e.g. 24 hours) reduce error accumulation but limit the usability of short-range forecasts where sub-daily predictability is high. In this work, we present GEM-3, a probabilistic global weather model that addresses this trade-off through exp...

Unpaired image-to-image translation must decide, per image, what to change and what to preserve without paired supervision. Many diffusion-based unpaired translators control preservation through a single global noise or guidance value applied across the image, which cannot separate content to keep from appearance to change. We present PRISM, a GAN-free flow-matching framework that replaces this global control with a learned per-feature gate. The gate's spatial prior is derived from each source feature's standardized distance to the target feature distribution, so features far from the target ...

Our primary objective is to advance video object counting in crowded scenes, aiming to robustly count all instances of a target category based on given text or visual prompts. Existing methods rely on RGB information, limiting their discriminative ability in crowded and occluded conditions. To address this, we propose a Depth-Guided Detector (DG-Det) along with a general post-processing pipeline. By integrating depth cues with multi-scale RGB-D cross-attention and explicit occlusion prediction, our method enhances spatial understanding and achieves robust detection in crowded and occluded sce...

Despite advances in artificial intelligence (AI) across multiple sectors, today's AI tools, including deep learning and generative AI, still fail when embedded into physical systems, such as robots and vehicles operating under real-world physical laws. This stems from their inability to maintain reliable world models for long-horizon planning under uncertainty and generalize to unseen scenarios. In this context, wireless networks, through pervasive sensing and communication, can orchestrate physical intelligence. However, current architectures optimize throughput, latency, and reliability and...

Cloudflare built an AI agent workspace for its employees. Now it’s open source.

While deep learning models, particularly transformer-based architectures, have shown impressive performance in time series forecasting, the application of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) in this domain remains limited. Since RAG has proven effective in enhancing the capabilities of large language models by incorporating relevant external information, retrieving similar time series sequences as references might also improve accuracy in time series forecasting tasks. However, most time series models are constrained by limited training data, smaller parameter scales, and a lack of the exten...

Learning from demonstration (LfD) provides a developmental framework through which robots can develop motor skills by observing and imitating human dynamics, reducing reliance on explicit programming to teach a skill to a robot. The resulting human-like robot motion is recognised as a key factor in building trust and enabling natural collaboration in human-robot interaction. This paper presents a framework for learning human-like robot motion from demonstration, including data collection, probabilistic trajectory learning, and perceptual user evaluation. A dataset of 3,142 handwriting demonst...

We study Muon, a recently proposed matrix-aware optimization method, in the context of the Stiefel manifold. This manifold consists of matrices with orthonormal columns and is ubiquitous in machine learning and scientific computing. Existing extensions of Muon to this manifold rely on heuristic, approximate, or iterative updates with varying computational efficiency. We show that the corresponding Stiefel Muon update admits an exact closed-form solution and use this result to develop Skewon, a practical algorithm for orthogonality-constrained optimization with an efficient implementation. We ...

Classical continual learning (CL) has primarily focused on enabling models to update and retain knowledge through parameter-centric mechanisms, e.g., training strategies, architectural designs, and weight adaptation. However, emerging paradigms are reshaping the scope of CL beyond this traditional model adaptation view. For instance, on-policy learning broadens the space of update mechanisms; test-time training extends CL from the training phase to inference; and external harness components such as memory, skill libraries, and interaction protocols extend the evolutionary boundaries of model ...

Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable. Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) mitigates this gap by calibrating near the test point while preserving marginal coverage. Existing theory, however, lacks finite-sample guarantees for the realized localized set that jointly control conditional validity and oracle efficiency. We provide such guarantees. For any fi...

Large language model (LLM) benchmark evaluations are routinely used to support claims about model safety, reliability, and deployment readiness. Yet most evaluations rely on a single access modality (model APIs), perform a single run per prompt, and report accuracy as the primary outcome metric, without accounting for conditions such as web search that may have effects on model behavior in deployment. We audit these assumptions for one of the most widely-used LLMs, comparing two modalities, ChatGPT's chat UI and OpenAI's API, with and without web search enabled. We use a stratified total samp...

Training large language model agents for long-horizon tool use typically relies on interactions with real or synthesized executable environments, whose construction and verification are costly, or on external simulators that are difficult to ground. We introduce EnvACE, an agentic reinforcement learning method that replaces external environment interaction during training with world rehearsal. The policy alternates between acting and rehearsal: it first generates a tool call, then plays the role of the environment to produce the response induced by that action, and conditions subsequent decis...

Agents backed by large skill libraries must decide which skills to load and in what order. Loading the entire library into context is expensive and provides no structure for autonomous sequencing. We study two systems for this problem over a corpus of 690 skills: a hybrid ranker combining lexical and dense-embedding retrieval for sparse, on-demand loading, and a typed knowledge graph encoding workflow relations such as prerequisites, data flow, and ordering. On a set of 117 realistic, non-echoing queries, the hybrid ranker retrieves the correct skill within the top five in 73.5% +/- 8.0 of ca...

Probabilistic Regression Trees (PRTrees) are a smooth and consistent alternative to classical regression trees, producing continuous predictions through probabilistic split assignments. This paper extends the PRTree framework to accommodate missing predictor values directly during tree construction, eliminating the need for prior imputation. Three strategies are proposed, each exploiting the available information differently: a uniform-probability approach, a partial-observation approach, and a dimension-reduced smoothing approach. These modifications are defined to preserve the fundamental p...

This generation of 20-somethings is so disillusioned with swipe-based dating apps that they'll try literally anything else -- even an AI matchmaker.