Vol. I · No. 65TUE, JUN 23, 2026
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Predicting Future Behaviors in Reasoning Models Enables Better Steering

Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly. Test-time steering controls LRM outputs by intervening on their hidden representations, but it can degrade output quality. We argue that prior steering work implicitly relies on internal features that detect behavior in already generated text. We show that these detection features are poor predictors of future behavioral outcomes, and thus not the natural intervention target. Instead, we train activation probes to predict future behavior likelihoods from intermediate reasoning steps. These probes predict the most likely behavio...

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Algorithmic and Minimax Complexities in Kernel Bandits

Gaussian-process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) and decision-estimation-coefficient (DEC) methods may appear, at first sight, to belong to different theories. This paper places the two viewpoints in a common algorithmic-information language for frequentist RKHS bandits. GP-UCB fixes an algorithmic, rather than true, Gaussian-process prior and exploits realized-trajectory complexity together with computational tractability, whereas MAMS optimizes a robust class-wide MAIR/DEC envelope. Through the unified MAIR framework and heterogeneous positive-semidefinite algorithmic priors, we generalize ...

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Piper: A Programmable Distributed Training System

Large-scale model training increasingly relies on composing multiple parallelism strategies, such as data, pipeline, and expert parallelism, together with memory-saving optimizations like ZeRO. Deployed systems for foundation model pretraining often rely on human experts to manually design a high-level parallelism strategy then implement the corresponding low-level execution strategy, making it difficult to adapt the system to new strategies. Meanwhile, many general-purpose frameworks are more flexible but their implementations are still tied to a fixed set of common parallelism strategies, m...

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Multi-Faceted Interactivity Alignment in Full-Duplex Speech Models

Full-duplex spoken dialogue models can listen and speak simultaneously, making them a promising architecture for natural conversation. However, current models are trained solely with supervised learning through token-level likelihood maximization, which does not directly optimize interaction-level behaviors, causing interactivity issues such as excessive silence and ill-timed turn-taking. Recent work has applied reinforcement learning (RL) to improve interactivity, but existing methods address only a limited set of interactive behaviors in their rewards. In this work, we propose a post-traini...

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Flaws in the LLM Automation Narrative

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly described as performing at the level of human experts on knowledge economy tasks. These claims are primarily based on how LLMs perform on benchmarking tasks that measure average performance across standardized datasets. Primary limitations of many benchmarking tasks are that they often measure performance based on content directly included in LLM training data, and they frequently do not assess the reliability of LLM performance or the magnitude of LLM errors. However, in high stakes contexts, these qualities are critically important. Through a no...

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ReasonAlloc: Hierarchical Decoding-Time KV Cache Budget Allocation for Reasoning Models

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories in large language model (LLM) reasoning cause severe inference bottlenecks due to rapid key-value (KV) cache growth. Current decoding-time compression methods mitigate this issue via token eviction, but typically assume a uniform budget distribution across all layers and heads. In contrast, existing non-uniform budget allocation methods are predominantly designed for the static prompt prefill phase, and they do not capture the stepwise context demands of autoregressive reasoning. To bridge this gap, we propose ReasonAlloc, a training-free framework tha...

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COGENT: Continuous Graph Emulators with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Long-Term Physical Forecasting

In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes. COGENT encodes a finite history of system states and associated forcing fields and external forcings with a graph-based history encoder, producing node-wise context vectors that capture both local spatial interactions and temporal evolution. These context vectors initialize and condition a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation whose dynamics are driven by interpolated future forcings and explicit relative rollout tim...

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Itô maps for any-step SDEs

Recent one-step generative models accelerate sampling by learning deterministic flow maps of the underlying dynamics. These methods rely on learning from ordinary differential equations, leaving open how to define an exact distillation procedure for stochastic dynamics. We introduce the Itô map, an any-step stochastic flow map that takes an intermediate state and Brownian path and predicts future states in a single pass. The Itô map formulation yields novel estimators for inference-time control by providing cheap, differentiable access to posterior samples. Empirically, Itô maps produce diver...

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ABC-Bench: An Agentic Bio-Capabilities Benchmark for Biosecurity

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly acquiring capabilities relevant to biological research, from literature synthesis to interpretation of experimental data. Increasingly, LLM agents can also perform in silico biology tasks that previously required experienced human biologists. These emerging AI capabilities offer new opportunities for scientific discovery and biomedical advances, but they also shift the landscape of biosecurity risks. To address this, we introduce the Agentic Bio-Capabilities Benchmark (ABC-Bench), a suite of tasks to measure agentic biosecurity-relevant capabilities. A...

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Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise

We study the problem of learning a drifting concept in the presence of Massart noise. In this framework, an online learner has access to a history of independent samples whose labels are noisy versions of a target concept that may change from round to round. The goal is to output, in each round, a hypothesis with small prediction error. We study the complexity of this learning problem for the fundamental class of margin-separable linear classifiers (halfspaces). On the positive side, we give a computationally efficient learner achieving error $η+ \tilde O(Δ^{1/3}/γ)$, where $η$ upper bounds t...

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OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib

Resistance to first-line osimertinib in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the canonical example of predictable clonal evolution under therapeutic pressure, yet no public benchmark exists for training or evaluating computational models on the corresponding longitudinal patient trajectories. We introduce OncoTraj, a public benchmark of 813 EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving first-line osimertinib, harmonized from three real-world clinical-genomic sources: MSK-CHORD (672 patients), AACR Project GENIE BPC NSCLC (34 patients), and the FLAURA molecular-resistance supplement (107 p...

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Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion model parameterization: performance of ensemble-Kalman and Monte Carlo techniques

Data assimilation (DA) in subsurface flow entails calibrating model parameters to match observed data, typically at wells, while preserving geological realism. Latent diffusion models (LDMs) provide efficient mappings from high-dimensional geological model space to a low-dimensional latent variable, reducing the dimensionality of the inverse problem while maintaining plausibility in posterior geomodels. However, the high nonlinearity in the LDM mapping may degrade the performance of Kalman-gain-based ensemble updates. We present a systematic comparison of DA algorithms applied to large-scale ...

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First-Order Trajectory Matching: Fast Ensemble Predictions of Chaotic, Turbulent, Stochastic Systems

We introduce First-Order Trajectory Matching (FTM), a surrogate-modeling method that learns the first-order local transport of probability mass from trajectories of stochastic systems. By matching the symmetric first-order motion of trajectories, FTM learns the probability current velocity, whose flow preserves time marginals to match ensemble averages, while also capturing current-like trajectory quantities such as fluxes, circulations, and barrier-crossing currents. FTM learns the current velocity directly from trajectories, avoiding drift, diffusion, and score estimation. Our stability ana...

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Robust Regression of General ReLUs with Queries

We study the task of agnostically learning general (as opposed to homogeneous) ReLUs under the Gaussian distribution with respect to the squared loss. In the passive learning setting, recent work gave a computationally efficient algorithm that uses $poly(d,1/ε)$ labeled examples and outputs a hypothesis with error $O(opt)+ε$, where $opt$ is the squared loss of the best fit ReLU. Here we focus on the interactive setting, where the learner has some form of query access to the labels of unlabeled examples. Our main result is the first computationally efficient learner that uses $d polylog(1/ε)+\...

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Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation

Synthetic post-training pipelines commonly filter generated samples with reward models or holistic LLM judges, yet two practices remain rarely examined together: whether the filtering signal is grounded in the source evidence that induced each generation, and whether rejected samples can be systematically recovered rather than permanently discarded. We present a controlled study of both questions across gate configurations, recovery strategies, and generator scales, using adversarially injected corpora to provide ground-truth failure labels. We find that exact source provenance improves faith...

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DMT: Demographic Conditioning, Morphology-Enhanced Transformer for Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation from PPG Signals

Blood pressure (BP) is a key marker for cardiovascular risk assessment and therapeutic decision-making, and Photoplethysmography (PPG) enables low-cost, wearable-friendly cuffless BP estimation. However, even with recent progress, many PPG-based models are trained with BP regression alone and may rely on amplitude-dominated shortcuts. In addition, demographic covariates that systematically modulate vascular compliance are often incorporated only via late fusion, limiting subject-specific representation learning. We propose a Transformer-based network for cuffless BP estimation from PPG signal...

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Overcoming Rank Collapse in Feedback Alignment

Backpropagation (BP) is widely viewed as biologically implausible, in part because it requires feedback weights to be the transpose of forward weights for error propagation. Interestingly, when training a network with fixed random feedback weights to circumvent this issue, learning aligns the forward weights with the feedback weights, leading the backpropagated error signal to become an approximation of the standard gradient used by BP. This process, called Feedback Alignment (FA), occurs in MLPs and very shallow CNNs but does not scale well to deeper architectures. In this work, we first inv...

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Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Football

We recast pass evaluation in football (soccer) as a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-like evaluation problem whose components mostly exist in the literature under different names: a value model (possession value), a world model (multi-agent trajectories with ball interactions), and a policy over counterfactual actions (sampling pass variants with noise). Building on the first public high-fidelity tracking dataset with 3D ball trajectories from the Bundesliga, we introduce Monte Carlo Pass Search (MCPS), which infers kick parameters for each observed pass, samples execution variants and option v...

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TRACE: A Unified Rollout Budget Allocation Framework for Efficient Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a promising approach for enhancing reasoning and agentic behavior in large language models. However, rollout-intensive policy optimization is often limited by insufficient reward contrast, arising when overly simple or complex prompts generate low-variance feedback and when outcome-only rewards assign the same terminal assessment to every decision in a multi-turn rollout. Past efforts have focused on allocating available rollout resources to promising prompts, yet they only leverage sample informativeness at the prompt level and neglect...

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Data-Driven Dynamic Assortment in Online Platforms: Learning about Two Sides

We study a dynamic assortment problem on a two-sided service platform with incomplete information and heterogeneous customers in a discrete-time setting. In each period, a customer arrives seeking service, and the platform chooses an assortment of sellers to display. The customer then proposes a transaction to at most one seller in the assortment according to a multinomial logit choice model. After a fixed number of periods, sellers review the proposals they have received and each chooses at most one customer according to another multinomial logit choice model, after which the cycle repeats. ...

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Towards Autonomous Accelerator Design: FPGA Accelerator Generation with SECDA

Designing FPGA-based accelerators for modern artificial intelligence workloads requires exploring a large and complex hardware design space that involves architectural parameters, data flow strategies, and memory hierarchies, making the process very time consuming. While existing methodologies such as SECDA enable rapid hardware-software co-design through SystemC simulation and FPGA execution, identifying efficient accelerator configurations remains a largely manual process requiring extensive domain knowledge. SECDA-DSE is a framework that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) into the SEC...

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Designed by Journalists, but Is It for Readers? Rethinking AI Disclosures and Transparency in News

As newsrooms integrate generative AI, journalists face a disclosure challenge: how to communicate AI involvement in ways that maintain reader trust. Current practice offers two approaches: brief one-line labels or detailed disclosures specifying human oversight, editorial accountability, and error reporting mechanisms. Neither achieves journalists' goal of building trust through transparency. An existing controlled experiment with 34 news readers show that detailed disclosures trigger a \textit{transparency dilemma}, reducing trust rather than increasing it, and risk introducing dark patterns...

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Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion

Clinicians diagnose brain tumors by synthesizing patient symptoms, medical history, and quantitative imaging data from modalities such as MRI and CT scans into a unified clinical judgement. However, most deep learning models rely on MRI/CT images alone, failing to replicate the clinicians multimodal reasoning. We explore a two-branch multimodal network combining raw MRI scans with 91 extracted radiomic features (intensity, texture, shape, and boundary descriptors) to classify brain tumors into glioma, meningioma, pituitary, and no-tumor. A pre-trained CNN backbone encodes the image stream, wh...

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FADA: Accessible fetal ultrasound interpretation and annotation with a selectively distilled unified vision-language model

A global shortage of trained sonographers limits prenatal ultrasound screening in low- and middle-income countries, where over half of pregnant women receive no skilled sonography. Current deep learning approaches address detection, segmentation, or classification in isolation, each demanding a separate model and expert-specified labels at inference. We present FADA, a unified vision-language model built on Qwen3.5-VL that performs clinical interpretation, classification, detection, and segmentation through a single interpretation-first pipeline without external labels. FADA distills knowledg...

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PhantomBench: Benchmarking the Non-existential Threat of Language Models

Hallucinations, where language models (LMs) generate factually ungrounded responses, pose serious risks, as users tend to blindly rely on them. This is particularly concerning in high-stakes domains, where consequences of such model behavior can lead to significant harms. Despite notable progress in understanding hallucinations, it remains unclear how reliably these models can recognize the limits of their knowledge. We introduce PhantomBench, the first large-scale benchmark of its kind, comprising more than 60K non-existent terms and entities derived from real concepts across diverse domains...

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Limitations of Learning Tanh Neural Networks with Finite Precision

We investigate limitations of learning $\tanh$ neural networks from point evaluations under finite-precision computations and $L^p$ accuracy guarantees, building on Berner, Grohs, and Voigtländer (2023). Our approach is based on a novel construction of sharply localized bump functions via iterated $\tanh$ activations. Using this mechanism, we show that, in a finite-precision setting, no adaptive randomized algorithm based on $m$ samples can achieve a convergence rate higher than the Monte Carlo rate $O(m^{-1/p})$ in the $L^p$ norm, unless the sampling budget grows exponentially with the size ...

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Anthropic releases its first Mythos-class model Claude Fable

Anthropic just announced Claude Fable 5, a new AI model it said is the most powerful model it has ever made widely available. According to the company, Fable 5 "shows exceptional performance in software engineering, knowledge work, and vision," with its lead over other models growing as tasks become longer and more complex. Fable 5 marks the first broad release from Anthropic's Mythos class of AI models, after the company said the family was so capable at cybersecurity tasks that it was too dangerous to release publicly. Anthropic said the release was "made possible by new safeguards that blo...

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Do Transformers Actually Help Intrusion Detection? A Temporal Sequence Evaluation on CIC-IDS2017

Recent deep learning approaches for network intrusion detection increasingly incorporate temporal architectures such as recurrent networks and Transformers, often reporting near-perfect performance on CIC-IDS2017. However, many existing studies neither supply their temporal modules with genuine sequence inputs nor evaluate under realistic, leakage-free conditions, making it unclear whether reported gains arise from true sequence-modeling capability. In this work, we reformulate CIC-IDS2017 as a temporal intrusion-detection task by constructing ordered flow sequences from network conversations...

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